Thursday, August 23, 2007

What Size Lead Makes You Comfortable?

The Mets are currently tied with the Red Sox for the largest game lead in the majors at 5. The Mets have never had a lead larger than 5 games for the entire season. Which begs the question how many games do the Mets need to lead by to make you feel comfortable they'll win the division?

Last year, a 5 game lead would have made me plenty comfortable. Our bullpen was rock solid. The offensive production was there. I felt confident that every game we took the field we had a shot to win it.

I've gotten that feeling back over the past week, but it's not completely there yet. Right now in my humble estimation it would take an 8 game lead to make me feel comfortable that this team is going to clinch the pennant. This year an 8 game lead is almost insurmountable. During September the Mets, Braves & Phils all play each other for almost two weeks straight. The way these teams beat up on each other it will be difficult for any one team to really overtake an 8 game lead unless they went on an 8 or 10 game win streak.

So the Mets need to get that 8 game lead before September 1 rolls around. It does make me feel better to see the Braves in 3rd place than in 2nd place, but that team still keeps me up at night.

Let's win this series with the Padres and take it from there. One game at a time.

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