The Mets and the Curse of the Big Inning

The Harry Potter-esque structure of the title of this post is far from a fantasy. In fact it's a painful reality that the Mets need to deal with.

The Mets currently have a record of 13-12 after a painful end to their road trip which concluded with getting swept by the meager Astros. But the most significant stat of the season so far is that in 11 of the 12 losses the Mets have this season Mets pitchers have given up 3 or more runs in one inning.

Mets pitching is cursed by the big inning.

The only exception was the second loss of the season against the Nationals where 1 run was scored in the 2nd inning and then in each of the last 3 innings. These big innings have as much to do with mental toughness as they do with making the right pitches.

RA Dickey has been victim to the big inning, mostly by giving up a 3-run home run which has to do with not making the right pitch. Chris Schwinden, Manny Acosta and Miguel Batista on the other hand have experienced innings where when one run scores they just lose control and see the flood gates open.

The Big Inning affects starters and relievers alike and it puts this young lineup in a precarious position especially when they're down early like they were constantly in the Houston series. When you find yourself down 3-0 in the 2nd inning, hitters tend to press a bit more and they don't play loose. Then any additional run scored just buries the team a bit more.

This is a major problem that has to be addressed by Collins and his staff. The Mets can't afford to have Big Innings against them this often. I understand that it's bound to happen every once in a while but when it occurs this often, it's an issue that has to be dealt with.

Even in 4 of the Mets wins, pitchers have given up 3 or more runs in an inning. Before it becomes an epidemic that cripples the psyche of this team and adds more digits to the loss column, the Mets need to face the reality that their pitcher's problems are producing staggering results.

Braves Series Shows How Key Pitching is for 2012 Mets

If you want a synopsis of how the Mets will fare this year, you just need to look at the Braves series. The Mets averaged 5 runs per game in the three games series, but only won 1. On the flip side the Mets gave up an average of 6 runs per game and thus lost 2 out of 3.

The Mets will be an offensive team. Wright is back. Murphy is what we hoped. Ike is getting back into the swing of things. And Duda looks promising. Even Thole is starting the season off well.

But the Mets will only be as good as their pitching. I tend to put more emphasis on the starting rotation. If Santana only goes 1 inning, that's a guaranteed loss. Dickey can't find his knuckleball, pack it in because that game is over. Pelfrey is already a known basket case. And if Gee & Niese can't keep opponents to 3 runs or less the Mets will have issues.

The bullpen has had its moments this year, but I honestly think it's in decent shape outside of Collins' infatuation with Miguel Batista who probably doesn't deserve to be on a major league roster. I like what I've seen so far from Rauch, Francisco and Parnell. That threesome, if consistent, can be a solid pen if the Mets' starters can go 6 innings.

The Mets will live and die this year with their pitching. The starters need to overachieve this year to remain competitive because while the Mets have done well against the NL East so far, this is a division that is stocked with great arms. And the Mets are the weakest of the bunch in that category.

The Importance of Pitching

On a night when the Mets had anything but good pitching, the top pitcher of the National League proved just how important an ace in the hole can be.

Roy Halladay threw a perfect game for the Phils on Saturday night in a game where he got one mere run of support. Meanwhile in Milwaukee the Mets scored 6 runs but lost 8-6 thanks in most part to a 4 spot by Nieve in the first and typical pitching from Oliver Perez.

Over the last year and a half Bryan and I have been a broken record about Roy Halladay and how the Mets needed to get a guy like him. I was shocked at some of the responses and comments from other Mets fans saying he was "too old" or "too much money" or that the Mets didn't "need" him.

I offer Saturday's performance as proof of the error of these thoughts. While the Mets scramble to find a decent pitcher on the closest street corner, the Phillies have a guy that didn't just throw a perfect game but has been lights out from Opening Day. He doesn't need run support. He doesn't even have to worry about the bullpen blowing a lead because Halladay pitches complete games as often as John Maine walks the leadoff batter.

In only 48 hours, the Mets have gone from sheer dominance over the Phils and sending them packing with their tails between their legs to being a measly one game over .500 and the Phils riding high.

The difference? Pitching. The Mets felt success when their pitching overachieved, but now fall from their cresting wave of victory as their arms on the mound come back down to earth.

Until a reliable rotation can be reconciled, Mets fans should break out their wet suits because the ebb and flow of this season will continue to ride the current tide of victories followed by crashing defeats.

Mets Get Jason Bay, Now What?

So it appears the Mets will sign Jason Bay to a four year deal. Only took Bay the entire winter to decide that money does mean more to him than happiness and sign with the Mets.

Omar Minaya is feeling pretty good right now. Angel Pagan? Not so much. Nice move Omar although I'd rather have Holliday, but Bay will be a solid bat in the middle of the lineup and fills the void the Mets have had for the last four seasons.

But now what? Is the Bay move enough to make the Mets brass feel good about 2010? I know I don't.

Pitching, pitching pitching. The starting rotation must be addressed before the winter is out. There's not many free agent pitchers that people would covet, but the Mets should exhaust every option out there from Zambrano to whomever to try and improve potentially the worst rotation in baseball outside of Johan Santana.

At least the Mets did something, but I hope no one has false hope that this is enough to field a competitive team in 2010.

The Mets Have to Get Roy Halladay

I'm telling you right now the Mets have to get this done. They HAVE TO.

Via Metsblog.com, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com "a deal for Blue Jays RHP Roy Halladay will certainly cost some combination of Holt, Mejia, Davis or Martinez, and so a deal with the Mets is not likely to happen." That's just ludicrous. Plain vile, egregious thinking.

If Roy Halladay is seriously available the Mets need to let go of their coveted prospects and go get the second best pitcher in baseball. Can you imagine a Halladay/Santana tandem? I just got chills.

I hear the argument about his age, and how the Mets always give up on prospects to soon. Understood, but this isn't a chance the Mets are taking. This is a lock it up, guaranteed win.

Look at all the prospects we gave up for Santana. So far looks like we're on the winning end of that one. FMart may turn out to be a great player. Same can be said for Flores. But then again they might not. Halladay is already a great player and will be for the next several years.

The Mets are a franchise that has proven success when they have a stellar starting pitching tandem. Koosman & Seaver. Gooden & Darling. Leiter & Hampton/Reed. This is a franchise (not to mention a ballpark) that is built and succeeds with pitching.

The alternative? The Phillies sign Halladay. That's what is going to happen if the Mets don't get on the phone right now and make this happen.

Santana/Halladay for the next 5 years will give you 30+ wins a season, rest your bullpen and give you 18 innings of quality pitching when you throw in the fact that KRod/Putz are there for the 8th & 9th.

This has to be done. FMart, Murphy, Evans, Flores, Holt, or whoever they want (how 'bout Castillo?). Omar Minaya better be on the phone with the Blue Jays right now. If Halladay is a Phillie this year, we'll be hating ourselves for the next half a decade.

Carlos Delgado and the Hip Specialist

That's either the title of a baby boomer version of a Berenstain Bears book or the sad commentary that is the Mets situation at first base.

Any time "hip specialist" is used in a sentence that doesn't include the words "grandma" or "grandpa" you've got a world of trouble on your hands.

Let's get to the point: Carlos Delgado is done for the season.

Sure he might be back at some point, but for the majority of 2009 the Mets will have no Carlos Delado in the lineup. That's about 25 less home runs and 90+ fewer RBIs. Brad Bortone over at Bugs and Cranks put together a good post on all the people the Mets can't sign because of their indiscretions in the past and highlights the rif-raf that is obtainable on the trade/free agent market.

Talk radio will be bursting with commentary about who the Mets should trade and who the Mets should get to help at first base, but I think we can live without Delgado if (big if here) we can get another starting pitcher.

Forget about first base. Go get a #2 starter to support Johan Santana in this rotation. Do we have the pieces to do something like that? Maybe not, but that should be the focus instead of replacing Delgado.

If we've learned anything these last two seasons, it's that pitching is the key. We've improved our bullpen. We've got the #1 starter on the planet. We now need a few supporting pieces to pull it all together.

Names like Oswalt and Peavey will be jockeyed around come July, but who knows if they will be available or if we have the players to get them. But the point is that's the position we need help with.

Do we want Niese starting a game the final week of the season like last year? Do we trust Livan Hernandez to win key games against the Phillies or Braves?

A platoon at first base of Tatis/Reed/Murphy/Elmo is going to struggle some games and pull through for you in others. We survived when Alou was injured the last two seasons from on offensive standpoint, but it was the pitching that hurt us in the end.

Pitching, pitching, pitching. Focus Omar. Focus. If I see Richie Sexson or Nick Johnson within 20 miles of Citi Field, I may pull a Jack Bauer and go rogue.

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching

If you don’t have good pitching, you’re not going to win many ball games. You can analyze a game to death; who missed a bunt, who failed to get the runner over, who didn’t cover the bag, but if you can’t throw strikes and get anybody out, it’s a tough hurdle to climb. For the better part of two months now, our pitching has been downright embarrassing. We’ve actually let up 48 runs in 5 games to the weakest hitting offense in the National League, losing 4 of those games – in crucial games no less. It’s just inexcusable. And even more unacceptable is the recent performance of our 300 Game winner.

Last night night, Tom Glavine was horrible. He was terrible in his previous start as well. This is not good. If Mike Pelfrey has a bad outing, you can live with that. But when Tom Glavine, the guy who is supposed to anchor this rotation, goes out and lays an egg during this time of year, you’re in trouble. And that’s exactly where the Mets find themselves after doing all they can to give up their hold on first place.

And what can you say about the bull pen? They have to be the worst in baseball. When you have someone come in to pitch their first major league of an important game, that means your team is pitiful. After Carlos Muniz pitched a scoreless inning, I was trying to figure out if there was a way we could put him on the post season roster (If we’re fortunate enough to make it). And I was serious. Why not? Sure, we don’t what we have in him, but we certainly know what we have in Mota, Schoenweis and the rest of the Blow Pen. I couldn’t even blame Randolph for putting him in that spot. Look what he has to choose from.

Fortunately, the Braves thumped the Phillies and we still, miraculously, have a 2 game lead, which is quite extraordinary really when you consider how disgusting this team has played. And tonight, we have a kid who is making is first major league start. Buckle up...