Trading Beltran Would Be Stupid

The Mets are always good for a stupid deal every other year. Or maybe every year for that matter. But the dumbest move of this coming off season would be to trade Carlos Beltran.

Carlos Beltran is entering the coveted walk year of his contract and is at a pivotal point in his career where he has the opportunity to get one more decent contract before he gets put out to pasture. If there was ever a year that Beltran would be motivated, focused and totally in shape, it's next season.

We've even seen flashes of this over the last week or so as Beltran's slowly gotten into the baseball swing of things and is swinging the bat, running and covering ground in the outfield like he used to. Now he will never have the same jump on the ball like he used to wearing that mammoth brace, and I do believe that Angel Pagan should be the starting center fielder, but Beltran can contribute next year.

Plus who do the Mets have to replace him? Do they honestly believe they can upgrade from Beltran via a trade? Fernando Martinez is not exactly knocking our socks off. If Beltran goes you've got a choice between Chris Carter, Nick Evans, Lucas Duda, FMart or trying to trade/sign someone.

The only possible reason I'd trade Beltran is if I knew I was going to lock up Carl Crawford via free agency. However, I think the Mets money would be better spent on starting pitching, namely a #1 starter, than on another outfielder. There are also greater needs at second base or catcher than in center.

If the Mets trade Beltran, I predict he'll hit 29 home runs and drive in just over 100 RBIs for whomever he's traded to. And what will we get in return? Sure it frees up cap space, but you will have a gaping hole in your lineup unless you shell out more money for superior talent.

Oliver Perez Doesn't Make Business Sense

Fans may rant and rave about Oliver Perez (myself included), Mets players may anonymously bad mouth him to the media and talk radio can rail him for hours, but when it comes right down to it how the Mets handle Oliver Perez is strictly business.

As much as we love our teams we often overlook the fact that this is a business being run by people who are beholden to the almighty dollar. Winning brings in dollars, but if a losing team can still make a profit that's not a bad deal for these guys either.

So let's look at the Oliver Perez situation and you'll see why it's bad business for the Mets to hold on to him as they currently are.

Perez is estimated to make about $12 million over the next two years. He's signed a contract stating such. So you know what that means? That money is basically spent. Sure it's allocated on a balance sheet for the next two calendar years, but in reality that money is already gone. The Mets are not making that back.

The only way the Mets could get out of paying Perez is by trading him and the other team picking up his full contract. Of course, it's logical to assume that whatever team he is traded to will send an equal valued contract back to the Mets so there's no cost savings. So basically holding onto Perez doesn't make the Mets any more profitable.

In fact it could make them lose money.

Fans come to the ballpark to see a winning team or see an exciting team play. The Perez situation is turning away fans from coming to the games. Sure the stands still have fannys in the seats, but it's the fan that comes to 3 or 4 games a season that is less likely to spend the money to attend a game because of the bad taste the Mets are leaving in their mouths with Perez.

Now let's say the Mets DFA Perez. Money is already spent for his contract so they're not losing any money. They may have to bring in another pitcher, maybe from Triple A or maybe a free agent. Let's say that it costs the Mets $3 million for this season to bring in a free agent pitcher.

Let's also assume that now that the Mets are rid of Perez, Mets fans are now more pleased with the team and more fans are likely to come out to the ballpark. For the sake of argument let's say that Perez's leaving the team causes on average 300 more additional fans to attend a game for the rest of the season and there's 50 home games left. The average amount of dollars this fan spends to attend a game is about $200 including tickets, parking, food, drinks and memorabilia. Those 300 additional fans would equal about $3 million additional dollars coming in to even out the money spent on the free agent pitcher.


Now the more spent on a pitcher, especially if the pitcher is a known name and established talent, could cost the team more money, but also drive up attendance as well.

We're also not quantifying in dollars the state of the clubhouse and how an improvement there can produce better performance on the field. Or the games that Ollie may blow in the bullpen that causes additional fans to not attend games. Or any other number of scenarios.

But what it boils down to is that keeping Oliver Perez on this team not only makes poor baseball sense, but bad business sense as well. If Oliver Perez were an employee of a business, he would be given a package and sent on his way to bring in a more productive employee and to prevent others in the department from being brought down by his poor performance.

Cut him loose Wilpon. Talk to your accountants, your financial planners, your marketing employees. They'll all come to the same business conclusion. Perez is bad for business.

Mets Are Going About This All Wrong...Again

Bill Madden wrote an article talking about how the Mets are focused on tier 2 free agents due to the amount of money they have available and trying to fill the needs.

This is just another chapter in the folly that is the Mets organization. Instead of focusing on creating a winning team for the future, they're focused on plugging holes to fit a budget.

Obviously, the team's budget plays a role, but it's the way they're going about their budget that's the problem. Bryan and I have talked about this before. The Mets both in the past and what seems like this offseason are paying too much for players that have limited roles. There's no reason to spend more than $1 million on a 5th starter, or even a 4th starter for that matter. Spend the money on the pivotal positions like a quality starting pitcher or a linchpin player in left field. Then fill the rest of the holes with the support players that you need.

To focus on tier 2 players is moronic. The focus should be on a quality #2 starter and a young talent at either first base of left field. Fill those spots first and use the majority of your budget to do so, then worry about filling the other voids.

Sure the Mets can afford a Jose Guillen in left field and a Joel Piniero, but does that really put us in a place that's better than where we already are?