Tuesday, March 2, 2010

The Mets Can Compete for the NL East If...

Ron Darling was on WFAN this morning and predicted that the Mets will win "at best" 86 games this season. Not exactly the vote of confidence one would hope for, but at least Darling is a realist. It seems everyone who is an expert is predicting the Mets to finish the 2010 season with about 80 or so wins.

Well, let's look at the glass half full and see what it's going to take for the Mets to win the NL East:

  1. Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey win 15 games: If both of these guys can pitch like they did two years ago, the Mets will find themselves in an unfathomable situation of having multiple reliable starters not named Johan Santana. Likelihood of this happening = 4%.
  2. David Wright competes for NL MVP: If Wright is in contention for an MVP award come September, he'll have to have numbers that look like an average around .315, 30 home runs, 110 RBIs, and 90 runs scored. If Wright puts up those numbers, the Mets will win at least 15 more games than they did last season if not more just on Wright's bat alone. Likelihood of this happening: 20%
  3. The bullpen blows less than 12 games: The last time this happened for the Mets I think Gerald Ford was in office. This would take a miraculous turnaround with Escobar getting healthy and performing up to par, Feliciano not being overworked before June, Nieve/Figueroa/Parnell becoming decent bullpen contributors and KRod being the KRod of old. Likelihood of this happening = 1%
  4. Jose Reyes becomes a patient hitter: Jose Reyes is an offensive threat without even swinging the bat. If he can show patience at the plate, increase his walks total by 20%, look to hit the ball in the gaps instead of over the fence, and be aggressive on the base paths the Mets will score more runs than the majority of NL teams out there. Likelihood of this happening = 15%
  5. Stay healthy: Every season has players that go on the disabled list, but if the Mets can keep their core players healthy and consistent, they have a chance to compete. All I ask is that Wright, Bay, Reyes, Santana, Pelfrey, Beltran (when he gets back) & KRod stay off the disabled list for an entire season. Likelihood of this happening: 20%
  6. Beltran comes back at 100%: A middle of the lineup that includes Wright, Beltran and Bay is as formidable a threesome as you'll find in the National League. Pair that with a Reyes/Pagan tandem in front and you have big inning potential every 3 innings. But what will the Beltran that comes back off of rehab look like? Likelihood of this happening: 50%.

3 comments:

thomas said...

I must say that it befuddles me as to why you feel it is 80% more likely David Wright will perform more like last season than the way he has performed for 80% of his career?

Do you really think that a 28 year old ball player with his track record suddenly lost it to have it never found again?

Thomas

thomas said...

Ok, so being as i questioned you above, i thought i might add my own thoughts to the percentages, i think your's are extremely low in most cases and yet, in some case, i just think your thoughts aren't realistic....so....

1) I'd have to seperate the two. I'd say it's 50/50 on Pelfrey, and more like 15% on Perez.

2)Like i said above, i think the chances of Wright returning to his typical form are far greater than 20%, i'd say around 70% that he gets close to those numbers.

3) Now this one i found very interesting, actually i'd say the chances of this happening are 0. No team in the major leagues blew less than 12 saves last season. And to count as a blown save it means a reliever had to actually come into a save situation and blow it, doesn't count coming in with a four or five run lead and blowing it.

4) Reyes already has an above average OBP for lead off hitters in the majors. So not sure why this is an area that needs to improve. I'd say a better two hitter is a bigger concern.

5)i agree....though 100% heathly for the entire season, might not be necessary, i'd say the chances of the core stay relatively healthy the whole year is about 60%

6) i can agree with this one...maybe slightly higher.

dave said...

thomas- love your input and i can see your points. i think with Wright my "20%" estimation was more in line with my first thought of him competing for MVP. I can agree with you about the 30HR/100RBI/90R being more of what we expect.

as for Pelfrey, i think 50% is still too high. he hasn't shown me anything to put that much confidence in his ability to win 15 games.

thanks for the stats on no team blowing 12 saves. i should have been more detailed in limiting it to just the 9th inning as that's where the Mets bullpen achilles heel has been the last few seasons. barring any luis castillo errors of course.

as for reyes, i think coming off an injury, starting off the season batting 3rd and his lack of plate discipline with runners on is what made me make my assessment.

i hope i'm dead wrong about all of them. guess it's the offseason pessimism getting to me.